气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics

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DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-54054-4
	Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics
	Nikos, Kollas; Sandra, Gewehr; Ioannis, Kioutsioukis
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Employing Empirical Dynamic Modelling we investigate whether model free methods could be applied in the study of Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Applying Simplex Projection and S-Map algorithms on yearly timeseries of maximum abundances from 2011 to 2020 we successfully predict the decreasing trend in the maximum number of mosquitoes which was observed in the rural area of Thessaloniki during 2021. Leveraging the use of vector correlation metrics we were able to deduce the main environmental factors driving mosquito abundance such as temperature, rain and wind during 2012 and study the causal interaction between neighbouring populations in the industrial area of Thessaloniki between 2019 and 2020. In all three cases a chaotic and non-linear behaviour of the underlying system was observed. Given the health risk associated with the presence of mosquitoes as vectors of viral diseases these results hint to the usefulness of EDM methods in entomological studies as guides for the construction of more accurate and realistic mechanistic models which are indispensable to public health authorities for the design of targeted control strategies and health prevention measures.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001162143900002
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/293363
作者单位	University of Patras
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nikos, Kollas,Sandra, Gewehr,Ioannis, Kioutsioukis. Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Nikos, Kollas,Sandra, Gewehr,&Ioannis, Kioutsioukis.(2024).Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Nikos, Kollas,et al."Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).