气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of current and future trends in water resources in the Gambia River Basin in a context of climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1186/s12302-024-00848-2
	Assessment of current and future trends in water resources in the Gambia River Basin in a context of climate change
	Sene, Serigne Mory Khouma; Faye, Cheikh; Pande, Chaitanya B.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2190-4707
EISSN	2190-4715
起始页码	36
结束页码	1
卷号	36 期号:1
英文摘要	Accurate assessment of water resources at the watershed level is crucial for effective integrated watershed management. While semi-distributed/distributed models require complex structures and large amounts of input data, conceptual models have gained attention as an alternative to watershed modeling. In this paper, the performance of the GR4J conceptual model for runoff simulation in the Gambia watershed at Simenti station is analyzed over the calibration (1981-1990) and validation period (1991-2000 and 2001-2010). The main inputs to conceptual models like GR4J are daily precipitation data and potential evapotranspiration (PET) measured from the same catchment or a nearby location. Calibration of these models is typically performed using the Nash-Sutcliffe daily efficiency with a bias penalty as the objective function. In this case, the GR4J model is calibrated using four optimization parameters. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model's runoff predictions, various statistical measures such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination, bias, and linear correlation coefficient are calculated. The results obtained in the Gambia watershed at Simenti station indicate satisfactory performance of the GR4J model in terms of forecast accuracy and computational efficiency. The Nash-Sutcliffe (Q) values are 0.623 and 0.711 during the calibration period (1981-1990) and the validation period (1991-2000), respectively. The average annual flow observed during the calibration period is 0.385 mm while it increases with a value of 0.603 mm during the validation period. As for the average flow simulated by the model, it is 0.142 mm during the calibration period (i.e., a delay of 0.142 mm compared to the observed flow), 0.626 mm in the validation period (i.e., an excess of 0.023 mm compared to the observed flow). However, this study is significant because it shows significant changes in all metrics in the watershed sample under different scenarios, especially the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios over the period 2021-2100. These changes suggest a downward trend in flows, which would pose significant challenges for water management. Therefore, it is clear that sustainable water management would require substantial adaptation measures to cope with these changes.
英文关键词	Water resources; Climate change; Flow; GR4J; CMIP6; Gambia Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001163902100001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291605
作者单位	Al-Ayen University; Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) - India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sene, Serigne Mory Khouma,Faye, Cheikh,Pande, Chaitanya B.. Assessment of current and future trends in water resources in the Gambia River Basin in a context of climate change[J],2024,36(1).
APA	Sene, Serigne Mory Khouma,Faye, Cheikh,&Pande, Chaitanya B..(2024).Assessment of current and future trends in water resources in the Gambia River Basin in a context of climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE,36(1).
MLA	Sene, Serigne Mory Khouma,et al."Assessment of current and future trends in water resources in the Gambia River Basin in a context of climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE 36.1(2024).