气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a past-future-action perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171630
	Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a past-future-action perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin
	Zhang, Kaili; Fang, Bin; Zhang, Zhicheng; Liu, Tan; Liu, Kang
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	926
卷号	926
英文摘要	Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services (ESs) and taking actions to adapt to and mitigate their negative impacts are of great benefit to sustainable regional development. In this paper, we integrate the System Dynamics Model (SD), the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, and the Structural Equation Model (SEM). We select three scenarios, SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to forecast future changes under these scenarios in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) by 2030. We predict future changes in water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and habitat quality (HQ) in the YRB. The results show that: (1) Under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, ecological land types such as forests, grasslands, and water bodies are protected and restored to a certain extent; under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the degree of land spatial development occupies an intermediate state among the three scenarios; and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, there is an obvious increase in the artificialization of the watershed's land use. (2) Under scenario SSP1-1.9, there is a comprehensive approach to sustainable development that significantly improves all ESs in the watershed, while the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios demonstrate an increase in trade-offs between WY, HQ, and CS, especially in the downstream area. (3) Anthropogenic factors having more significant impacts in the SSP5 - 8.5 scenario. In this paper, we not only summarize the differences in trade-offs among various ESs but also provide an in-depth analysis of the key factors affecting future ESs, providing new ideas and insights for the sustainable development of ES in the future. In summary, we propose a prioritized development pathway for the future, a reduction of trade-offs between ESs, and an improved capacity to respond to challenges.
英文关键词	Ecosystem services (ESs); SSP-RCP scenario; CMIP6 climate change; Land use simulation; Contributing factors
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001221378400001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/291102
作者单位	Nanjing Normal University; Nanjing Normal University; Northwest University Xi'an; Northwest University Xi'an
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Kaili,Fang, Bin,Zhang, Zhicheng,et al. Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a past-future-action perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin[J],2024,926.
APA	Zhang, Kaili,Fang, Bin,Zhang, Zhicheng,Liu, Tan,&Liu, Kang.(2024).Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a past-future-action perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,926.
MLA	Zhang, Kaili,et al."Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a past-future-action perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 926(2024).