气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41598-023-51035-x
	Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China
	Liu, Mei; Yang, Liyong; Su, Miaomiao; Gong, Wei; Liu, Yibo; Yang, Jingxuan; Huang, Yi; Zhao, Cong
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 x 10(4) km(2), primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 x 10(4) km(2), accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001142684300085
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290959
作者单位	Mianyang Teachers' College; Tibet University; Southwest Jiaotong University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Mei,Yang, Liyong,Su, Miaomiao,et al. Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Liu, Mei.,Yang, Liyong.,Su, Miaomiao.,Gong, Wei.,Liu, Yibo.,...&Zhao, Cong.(2024).Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Liu, Mei,et al."Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).