气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections

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DOI	10.1111/gcb.17099
	Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections
	Meier, Michael; Bugmann, Harald; Bigler, Christof
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1354-1013
EISSN	1365-2486
起始页码	30
结束页码	1
卷号	30 期号:1
英文摘要	The timing of leaf senescence in deciduous trees influences carbon uptake and the resources available for tree growth, defense, and reproduction. Therefore, simulated biosphere-atmosphere interactions and, eventually, estimates of the biospheric climate change mitigation potential are affected by the accuracy of process-oriented leaf senescence models. However, current leaf senescence models are likely to suffer from a bias towards the mean (BTM). This may lead to overly flat trends, whereby errors would increase with increasing difference from the average timing of leaf senescence, ultimately distorting model performance and projected future shifts. However, such effects of the BTM on model performance and future shifts have rarely been investigated. We analyzed >17x10(6) past dates and >49x10(6) future shifts of leaf senescence simulated by 21 process-oriented models that had been calibrated with >45,000 observations from Central Europe for three major European tree species. The surmised effects on model performance and future shifts occurred in all 21 models, revealing strong model-specific BTM. In general, the models performed only slightly better than a null model that just simulates the average timing of leaf senescence. While standard comparisons of model performance favored models with stronger BTM, future shifts of leaf senescence were smaller when projected by models with weaker BTM. Overall, the future shifts for 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999 increased by an average of 13-14days after correcting for the BTM. In conclusion, the BTM substantially affects simulations by state-of-the-art leaf senescence models, which compromises model comparisons and distorts projections of future shifts. Smaller shifts result from flatter trends associated with stronger BTM. Therefore, smaller shifts according to models with weaker BTM illustrate the considerable uncertainty in current leaf senescence projections. It is likely that state-of-the-art projections of future biosphere behavior under global change are distorted by erroneous leaf senescence models.
英文关键词	compromised model comparisons; distorted model accuracy; distorted projections; mean bias; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency; phenological difference; root mean squared error
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001151213000113
来源期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290796
作者单位	Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Universite PSL; Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE); Institut Agro; Montpellier SupAgro; CIRAD; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite Paul-Valery; Universite de Montpellier
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meier, Michael,Bugmann, Harald,Bigler, Christof. Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections[J],2024,30(1).
APA	Meier, Michael,Bugmann, Harald,&Bigler, Christof.(2024).Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,30(1).
MLA	Meier, Michael,et al."Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 30.1(2024).