气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/w16091207
	Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model
	Mao, Jiarui; Ma, Xiumin; Wang, Haojie; Jia, Liyun; Sun, Yao; Zhang, Bin; Zhang, Wenhui
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	9
卷号	16 期号:9
英文摘要	National Highway G559 is the first highway in Southeast Tibet into Motuo County, which has not only greatly improved the difficult situation of local roads, but also promoted the economic development of Tibet. However, rainfall-induced shallow landslides occur frequently along the Bomi-Motuo section, which seriously affects the safe operation and construction work of the highway. Therefore, it is urgent to carry out geological disaster assessment and zoning along the highway. Based on remote-sensing interpretation and field investigation, the distribution characteristics and sliding-prone rock mass of shallow landslides along the Bomi-Motuo Highway were identified. Three-dimensional stability analysis of regional landslides along the Bomi-Motuo Highway under different rainfall scenarios was carried out based on the TRIGRS and Scoops3D coupled model (T-S model). The temporal and spatial distribution of potential rainfall landslides in this area is effectively predicted, and the reliability of the predicted results is also evaluated. The results show that: (1) The slope structure along the highway is mainly composed of loose gravel soil on the upper part and a strong weathering layer of bedrock on the lower part. The sliding surface is mostly a circular and plane type, and the main failure types are creep-tensile failure and flexural-tensile failure. (2) Based on the T-S coupling model, it is predicted that the potential landslide along the Bomi-Motuo Highway in the natural state is scattered. The distribution area of extremely unstable and unstable areas accounts for 4.92% of the total area. In the case of extreme rainfall once in a hundred years, the proportion of instability area (Fs < 1) predicted by the T-S coupling model 1 h after rainfall is 7.74%, which is 1.57 times that of the natural instability area. The instability area (Fs < 1) accounted for 43.40% of the total area after 12 h of rainfall. The potential landslides were mainly distributed in the Bangxin-Zhamu section and the East Gedang section. (3) The TRIGRS and T-S coupling model is both suitable for predicting the temporal-spatial distribution of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, but the TRIGRS model has the problem of over-prediction. The instability area predicted by the T-S coupling model accounted for 43.30%, and 74% of the historical landslide disaster points in the area were correctly predicted. (4) In terms of rainfall response, the T-S coupling model shows higher sensitivity. The %LRclass (Fs < 1) index of the T-S coupling model is above 50% in different time periods, and its landslide-prediction effect (%LRclass = 78.80%) was significantly better than that of the one-dimensional TRIGRS model (%LRclass = 45.50%) under a 12 h rainfall scenario. The research results have important reference significance for risk identification and disaster reduction along the G559 Bomi-Motuo Highway.
英文关键词	rainfall-induced shallow landslide; TRIGRS; Scoops3D; three-dimensional stability; space-time prediction
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001220662500001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290642
作者单位	China Geological Survey; Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences; Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences; Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China; Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China; University of Science & Technology Beijing; China Earthquake Administration; Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mao, Jiarui,Ma, Xiumin,Wang, Haojie,et al. Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model[J],2024,16(9).
APA	Mao, Jiarui.,Ma, Xiumin.,Wang, Haojie.,Jia, Liyun.,Sun, Yao.,...&Zhang, Wenhui.(2024).Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model.WATER,16(9).
MLA	Mao, Jiarui,et al."Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Three-Dimensional Stability of Highway Shallow Landslide in Southeast Tibet Based on TRIGRS and Scoops3D Coupling Model".WATER 16.9(2024).