气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00704-024-04891-0
	Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China
	Disasa, Kinde Negessa; Yan, Haofang; Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Jianyun; Zhang, Chuan; Zhu, Xingye
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
英文摘要	Evidence of climate change can be observed in multiple climate variables, including air temperature rises and precipitation pattern changes. To manage water resources and agriculture effectively, it's important to project climate variables' changes at the local level, as these changes can vary depending on the specific area. The baseline weather data trend was analyzed using the percentage change (PC) method and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) technique at three cluster levels: cluster 1 (PC: 0-20%), cluster 2 (PC: 21-80%), and cluster 3 (PC: 81-100%). The precipitation (Prec.), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperatures showed downward trends in 9, 4, and 6 stations out of 24 stations, respectively. The SDSM model performed best in predicting Prec., while the LARS-WG model was more effective in predicting Tmax, Tmin, and solar radiation (SR). The average monthly Prec. percentage change shows both rising and falling trends in different weather areas for all three time periods (2040, 2060, and 2090) and for both RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In contrast to precipitation, both Tmax and Tmin consistently showed an upward trend across all meteorological stations for both RCPs and three-time frames. Across the four distinct plain regions, the overall projection suggests a slight increase in precipitation. The study predicts the highest increase in precipitation to occur in June across all meteorological stations. Seasonally, the greatest increase in precipitation is projected during summer (JJA) by 5.10%, while the largest decrease is expected during winter (DJF) by 3.29%. Additionally, precipitation variability shows an increase from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 and from near-term (2040) to long-term (2090), with the northern Jiangsu Plain exhibiting the highest variation. The biggest rise in Tmax/Tmin was observed at RCP 8.5, by 2.69/2.39 degrees C, and in the long term (2090), by 3.25/2.86 degrees C. This was compared to RCP 4.5 by 1.73/1.51 degrees C, in the near term (2040) by 1.24/1.08 degrees C, and in the mid-term (2060) by 2.14/1.90 degrees C. The highest increase in Tmax is expected compared to Tmin, leading to the highest diurnal temperature (DTR) at all three periods and both RCPs. Seasonally, the highest increase is projected in the autumn for both Tmax and Tmin. Similar to Tmax and Tmin, the longest time period (2090) exhibits the highest increase in solar radiation, followed by the midterm (2060) and then the short term (2040). Unlike Tmax and Tmin, the highest increase in SR is predicted during the summer season (JJA), while the lowest increase is projected during the winter season (DJF). The future projections highlight the expectation of a wettest and hottest summer, along with the driest and coldest winter. These findings provide valuable insights for water resource planners, agricultural managers, and policymakers, as these climate variables play a significant role in crop production and water allocation decisions.
英文关键词	Climate change; Trend analysis; Future projection; LARS-WG; And SDSM
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001171585400001
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290633
作者单位	Jiangsu University; Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute; Jiangsu University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Disasa, Kinde Negessa,Yan, Haofang,Wang, Guoqing,et al. Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China[J],2024.
APA	Disasa, Kinde Negessa,Yan, Haofang,Wang, Guoqing,Zhang, Jianyun,Zhang, Chuan,&Zhu, Xingye.(2024).Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA	Disasa, Kinde Negessa,et al."Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2024).