气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0092.1
	Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Model
	Cannon, David; Wang, Jia; Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi; Kessler, James; Ruberg, Steve; Constant, Steve
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	4
卷号	37 期号:4
英文摘要	While changing lake surface conditions have received significant research scrutiny, changes in subsurface conditions, including stratification and heat content, remain largely unexplored. In this work, we highlight changes in thermal structure, stratification dynamics, and ice characteristics in the Laurentian Great Lakes (Lakes Superior, Huron, Michigan, Erie, and Ontario) as simulated between 1979 and 2021. Three-dimensional lake hydrodynamics and ice cover were modeled using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) coupled with the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). Analysis revealed significant increases in surface (0.4 degrees-0.6 degrees C decade-1) and subsurface (0.1 degrees-0.4 degrees C decade-1) temperatures as well as dramatic losses in ice cover (1%-8% decade-1) and ice volume (0-3 km3 decade-1) over the last 40 years. Estimated surface heating rates were strongest during the summer and fall, while subsurface warming was most rapid during the nearly isothermal winter and spring. Intensified (decreased) summer (winter) stratification led to shifts in lake turnover dynamics, with delayed fall turnover dates (2-6 days decade-1) and earlier spring overturn dates (2-9 days decade-1). Modeled surface temperatures (LST), bottom temperatures (LBT), and annual averaged ice cover (AAIC) were used to estimate low-frequency climate signals, which were highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Warming trends fit to residual climate signals (LST: 0.1 degrees C decade-1; LBT: 0.03 degrees C decade-1; AAIC:-1% decade-1), calculated by removing low-frequency variability from the raw climate signal, were lower than those fit to associated low-frequency components, suggesting that recent climate change in the Great Lakes may be strongly infiuenced by natural multidecadal climate variability.
英文关键词	Ocean models; Reanalysis data; Decadal variability; Interannual variability; Seasonal cycle
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001165983500001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290200
作者单位	University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cannon, David,Wang, Jia,Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi,et al. Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Model[J],2024,37(4).
APA	Cannon, David,Wang, Jia,Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi,Kessler, James,Ruberg, Steve,&Constant, Steve.(2024).Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Model.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(4).
MLA	Cannon, David,et al."Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Model".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.4(2024).