气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/joc.8449
	Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers
	Petrova, Desislava; Tarin-Carrasco, Patricia; Sekulic, Aleksandar; Lukovic, Jelena; Reniu, Maria Gali; Rodo, Xavier; Cvijanovic, Ivana
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	44
结束页码	7
卷号	44 期号:7
英文摘要	California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid-century and end-century) projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and studied its respective model agreement in comparison to the previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern California more than two thirds of the models in each ensemble agree on wetter future conditions. However, over southern California both ensembles show highly uncertain precipitation changes, with model projections almost equally divided between wetter or drier conditions. Projected end-century precipitation changes range from -30% to +70% in CMIP5 and -20% to +80% in CMIP6. The CMIP6 ensemble mean changes are generally wetter and show larger model disagreement compared to CMIP5. Distribution of year-to-year precipitation indicates more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, with some models suggesting that the five wettest years account for as much as similar to 55% of the 20-year rainfall, and the five driest for as little as similar to 5%. Dynamically, both ensembles project weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, in line with the wetter mean conditions in CMIP6. In the western tropical Pacific we find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in CMIP6 that is not seen in CMIP5, and more El Nino than La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific. More CMIP6 models also project an increase in ENSO events compared to CMIP5, and a stronger impact of ENSO on California's precipitation is found in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. These factors also contribute to larger model disagreement and more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6.
英文关键词	California; CMIP5; CMIP6; ENSO teleconnection; Precipitation change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001193785700001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290177
作者单位	ISGlobal; University of Belgrade; University of Belgrade; University of Barcelona; ICREA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Petrova, Desislava,Tarin-Carrasco, Patricia,Sekulic, Aleksandar,et al. Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers[J],2024,44(7).
APA	Petrova, Desislava.,Tarin-Carrasco, Patricia.,Sekulic, Aleksandar.,Lukovic, Jelena.,Reniu, Maria Gali.,...&Cvijanovic, Ivana.(2024).Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(7).
MLA	Petrova, Desislava,et al."Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.7(2024).