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| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0237.1 |
| Uncertainty in the Past and Future Changes of Tropical Pacific SST Zonal Gradient: Internal Variability versus Model Spread | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| EISSN | 1520-0442 |
| 起始页码 | 37 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 37期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | The zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the tropical Pacific is a pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. In both historical simulations and future projections, the current state-of-the-art climate models show evident spread in the changes of zonal SST gradient, but the reasons remain unknown. Here, we quantify the contri-butions of internal variability and model spread to the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes by analyzing 342 realiza-tions from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and several sets of large-ensemble simulations. We found that the internal variability dominates the total uncertainty at multidecadal time scales (;31-yr trends). Although the ratio of internal un-certainty to the total uncertainty declines along with higher emission of greenhouse gases under global warming, it is still over 80% at the multidecadal time scales in the future. The Pacific decadal oscillation is identified as the key internal mode responsible for the multidecadal uncertainty. For the future projections at centurial time scales, the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes is mainly from the intermodel spread in response to external forcing, accounting for about 70% of the uncertainty based on the difference between 2070-99 and 1970-99. The model spread in the cloud-shortwave radiation- SST feedback over the tropical Pacific is important in the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes. In particular, the intensity of negative convective cloud feedback in the western Pacific dominates the spread in CMIP5 models, while the intensity of stratocumulus cloud feedback over the southeastern Pacific is the primary process influencing the uncertainty in CMIP6 models. |
| 英文关键词 | Pacific decadal oscillation; Climate change; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Cloud radiative effects; Uncertainty; Climate models |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001153654600001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290135 |
| 作者单位 | Ocean University of China; Ocean University of China; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Laoshan Laboratory; Ocean University of China; Ocean University of China; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Uncertainty in the Past and Future Changes of Tropical Pacific SST Zonal Gradient: Internal Variability versus Model Spread[J],2024,37(4). |
| APA | (2024).Uncertainty in the Past and Future Changes of Tropical Pacific SST Zonal Gradient: Internal Variability versus Model Spread.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(4). |
| MLA | "Uncertainty in the Past and Future Changes of Tropical Pacific SST Zonal Gradient: Internal Variability versus Model Spread".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.4(2024). |
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