气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121654
	Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest
	Yousefzadeh, Hamed; Walas, Lukasz; Amirchakhmaghi, Narjes; Alipour, Shirin; Pouramin, Mansour; Song, Yi-Gang; Kozlowski, Gregor
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0378-1127
EISSN	1872-7042
起始页码	555
卷号	555
英文摘要	Acer mazandaranicum is an endemic, endangered, recently described large tree species distributed in the Hyrcanian forest. Only a few scattered populations with low density are known in the Alborz Mountains of Iran. This research aims to approximate the potential geographical distribution range of A. mazandaranicum in the past, present, and future to provide a basis for prioritizing conservation-related activities. For the contemporary climate model, two past scenarios and three future climate scenarios were tested. The most crucial variables, as determined by the model, were the seasonality of precipitation and the amount of precipitation during the driest quarter, which together constituted 90.9% of the model for current conditions and presented A. mazandaranicum climatic requirements for appropriate habitats. According to our findings, the potential habitat of the species will be drastically diminished in suitability in the future. The model projected an area of 7410.8 km2 as moderate suitability habitat (0.50-0.75) and 13,896.41 km2 as low suitability (0.25-0.50). The average altitude in the potential range is 1026 m a.s.l. During the LGM, the potential range of A. mazandaranicum was 209.27% of the current area and spread mainly at lower altitudes (1078.8 m a.s.l.). The findings indicate a fascinating possibility that the species may possess the capability to shift their altitudinal distribution and potentially migrate to higher elevations in response to increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall. According to morphological spatial analysis (MSPA), the central and western regions of the Hyrcanian forests contain a core area with high connectivity. In order to mitigate the threats facing this endangered species and reduce the risk of extinction, ex situ conservation measures as well as in situ protection activities within their habitats are necessary for ensuring its long-term survival.
英文关键词	Endangered tree; Endemic species; Climate change; Morphological spatial analysis; Hyrcanian forest
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001175560400001
来源期刊	FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/290100
作者单位	Tarbiat Modares University; Polish Academy of Sciences; University of Guilan; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Fribourg
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yousefzadeh, Hamed,Walas, Lukasz,Amirchakhmaghi, Narjes,et al. Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest[J],2024,555.
APA	Yousefzadeh, Hamed.,Walas, Lukasz.,Amirchakhmaghi, Narjes.,Alipour, Shirin.,Pouramin, Mansour.,...&Kozlowski, Gregor.(2024).Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,555.
MLA	Yousefzadeh, Hamed,et al."Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 555(2024).