气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change

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DOI	10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0209.1
	A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change
	Kuhlbrodt, Till; Swaminathan, Ranjini; Ceppi, Paulo; Wilder, Thomas
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0003-0007
EISSN	1520-0477
起始页码	105
结束页码	3
卷号	105 期号:3
英文摘要	In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4 sigma envelope of the 1982-2011 daily time series. Earth's net global energy imbalance (12 months up September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m-2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for global surface -air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5 degrees C, and closer to the average at a 3.0 degrees C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.
英文关键词	North Atlantic Ocean; Sea ice; Southern Ocean; Extreme events; Sea surface temperature; Radiation budgets
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001183436900005
来源期刊	BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289603
作者单位	University of Reading; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science; University of Reading; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Earth Observation; Imperial College London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kuhlbrodt, Till,Swaminathan, Ranjini,Ceppi, Paulo,et al. A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change[J],2024,105(3).
APA	Kuhlbrodt, Till,Swaminathan, Ranjini,Ceppi, Paulo,&Wilder, Thomas.(2024).A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change.BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,105(3).
MLA	Kuhlbrodt, Till,et al."A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change".BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 105.3(2024).