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| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131048 |
| Exploring the food-energy-water nexus in coupled natural-human systems under climate change with a fully integrated agent-based modeling framework | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0022-1694 |
| EISSN | 1879-2707 |
| 起始页码 | 634 |
| 卷号 | 634 |
| 英文摘要 | Managing water resources to meet increasing energy and food demands while maintaining environmental sustainability under climate change is a major challenge, especially when this nexus occurred in a coupled natural-human system (CNHS), where heterogeneous human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle and vice versa. The relevant research has been limited by the lack of models that can effectively integrate human dynamics and hydrologic conditions with spatial details to examine co-evolutionary systems. To address this challenge, this paper develops a modeling framework that integrates an agent-based model (ABM; human behavior model) into a large-scale, process-based distributed hydrologic model to simulate human decisions endogenously in the hydrologic cycle. We then apply the Decision Scaling approach, an ex-post scenario analysis method, with our integrated model to study the bidirectional feedback of the CNHS under future changing climate conditions. With the Columbia River Basin (CRB) selected as the case study area, the calibration results show that the integrated model can simultaneously capture the historical irrigated water consumption and streamflow dynamics. Modeling results show that the trade-off between irrigated water consumption, hydropower generation, and streamflow will become more pronounced under hotter and wetter climate conditions at both the entire basin and regional (states and provinces) levels. Special attention should be given to temperature thresholds of different regions when the trade-off pattern started. The trade-off results can potentially inform the Columbia River Treaty renegotiation and provide insights for long-term water management policies. |
| 英文关键词 | Socio-ecological systems; Multisector dynamics; Farmers ' behavior; Decision scaling |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001218967300001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289343 |
| 作者单位 | Lehigh University; University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of Notre Dame; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Exploring the food-energy-water nexus in coupled natural-human systems under climate change with a fully integrated agent-based modeling framework[J],2024,634. |
| APA | (2024).Exploring the food-energy-water nexus in coupled natural-human systems under climate change with a fully integrated agent-based modeling framework.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,634. |
| MLA | "Exploring the food-energy-water nexus in coupled natural-human systems under climate change with a fully integrated agent-based modeling framework".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 634(2024). |
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