气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate

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DOI	10.1016/j.envres.2024.118412
	Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate
	Virdis, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale; Kongwarakom, Siwat; Juneng, Liew; Padedda, Bachisio Mario; Shrestha, Sangam
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0013-9351
EISSN	1096-0953
起始页码	247
卷号	247
英文摘要	The temperature of surface and epilimnetic waters, closely related to regional air temperatures, responds quickly and directly to climatic changes. As a result, lake surface temperature (LSWT) can be considered an effective indicator of climate change. In this study, we reconstructed and investigated historical and future LSWT across different scenarios for over 80 major lakes in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), an ecologically diverse region vulnerable to climate impacts. Five different predicting models, incorporating statistical, machine and deep learning approaches, were trained and validated using ERA5 and CHIRPS climatic feature datasets as predictors and 8-day MODIS-derived LSWT from 2000 to 2020 as reference dataset. Best performing model was then applied to predict both historical (1986-2020) and future (2020-2100) LSWT for SEA lakes, utilizing downscaled climatic CORDEX-SEA feature data and multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). The analysis uncovered historical and future thermal dynamics and long-term trends for both daytime and nighttime LSWT. Among 5 models, XGboost results the most performant (NSE 0.85, RMSE 1.14 degrees C, MAE 0.69 degrees C, MBE -0.08 degrees C) and it has been used for historical reconstruction and future LSWT prediction. The historical analysis revealed a warming trend in SEA lakes, with daytime LSWT increasing at a rate of +0.18 degrees C/decade and nighttime LSWT at +0.13 degrees C/decade over the past three decades. These trends appeared of smaller magnitude compared to global estimates of LSWT change rates and less pronounced than concurrent air temperature and LSWT increases in neighbouring regions. Projections under various RCP scenarios indicated continued LSWT warming. Daytime LSWT is projected to increase at varying rates per decade: +0.03 degrees C under RCP2.6, +0.14 degrees C under RCP4.5, and +0.29 degrees C under RCP8.5. Similarly, nighttime LSWT projections under these scenarios are: +0.03 degrees C, +0.10 degrees C, and +0.16 degrees C per decade, respectively. The most optimistic scenario predicted marginal increases of +0.38 degrees C on average, while the most pessimistic scenario indicated an average LSWT increase of +2.29 degrees C by end of the century. This study highlights the relevance of LSWT as a climate change indicator in major SEA's freshwater ecosystems. The integration of satellite-derived LSWT, historical and projected climate data into data-driven modelling has enabled new and a more nuanced understanding of LSWT dynamics in relation to climate throughout the entire SEA region.
英文关键词	Machine and deep learning; MODIS; LSWT; Climate change impact; Essential climate variable
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:001178922300001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288985
作者单位	Asian Institute of Technology; Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia; University of Sassari; Asian Institute of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Virdis, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale,Kongwarakom, Siwat,Juneng, Liew,et al. Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate[J],2024,247.
APA	Virdis, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale,Kongwarakom, Siwat,Juneng, Liew,Padedda, Bachisio Mario,&Shrestha, Sangam.(2024).Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,247.
MLA	Virdis, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale,et al."Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 247(2024).