气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty forWestern North America

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.541
	Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty forWestern North America
	Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh; Liguori, Giovanni; Faroughi, Salah A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
英文摘要	Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981-2010 to 2071-2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T) and precipitation (P). For RCP4.5, T MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.
英文关键词	climate change; climatic uncertainty; general circulation models; model-run reduction; representative model-runs; Western North America
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001172589100001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288261
作者单位	Texas State University System; Texas State University San Marcos; University of Bologna
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh,Liguori, Giovanni,Faroughi, Salah A.. Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty forWestern North America[J],2024.
APA	Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh,Liguori, Giovanni,&Faroughi, Salah A..(2024).Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty forWestern North America.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
MLA	Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh,et al."Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty forWestern North America".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2024).