气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change

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DOI	10.1029/2023EF003983
	KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change
	van der Wiel, Karin; Beersma, Jules; van den Brink, Henk; Krikken, Folmer; Selten, Frank; Severijns, Camiel; Sterl, Andreas; van Meijgaard, Erik; Reerink, Thomas; van Dorland, Rob
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	2
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry-trending and wet-trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM-RCM initial-condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society. To prepare society for the effects of future climate change, we need to know what the future climate will be like. In this paper we explain the method that is used to construct six different scenarios that describe possible future climates of the Netherlands. The scenarios make assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, and are based on the outcomes of climate models that simulate the response of the climate to these emissions. The KNMI'23 climate scenarios show that strongly reducing global emissions strongly reduces the expected changes in the climate of the Netherlands. In the scenario in which global emissions continue to rise until 2080, Dutch society will have to adapt to a much stronger increases in heat and precipitation extremes, increased risks of droughts with low river discharge in summer, and increased risk of flooding due to high river discharges in winter. In the coming years the climate scenario data will be used to evaluate what needs to be done to keep the country a safe place for people to live in and to thrive in, under changing climate conditions. We present a methodology for the construction of regional climate scenarios using a storyline approach to partition uncertainty Results from CMIP6 are reconstructed with a GCM-RCM initial condition ensemble to produce high-resolution scenario data for end-users Six scenario variants cover emission uncertainty (high, moderate, low) and uncertainty in the regional response (dry-trending, wet-trending)
英文关键词	climate change; climate scenarios; climate impacts; regional change; Netherlands; storylines
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001160125900001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287831
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Wiel, Karin,Beersma, Jules,van den Brink, Henk,et al. KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change[J],2024,12(2).
APA	van der Wiel, Karin.,Beersma, Jules.,van den Brink, Henk.,Krikken, Folmer.,Selten, Frank.,...&van Dorland, Rob.(2024).KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change.EARTHS FUTURE,12(2).
MLA	van der Wiel, Karin,et al."KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change".EARTHS FUTURE 12.2(2024).