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| DOI | 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118531 |
| Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0013-9351 |
| EISSN | 1096-0953 |
| 起始页码 | 251 |
| 卷号 | 251 |
| 英文摘要 | Estuaries are dynamic environments which are driven by various natural processes like river discharge, tides, waves, influx of saline water and sediments, etc. These ecosystems are the most sensitive to sea level rise and fluctuations in river discharge associated with climate change. A direct response of sea level rise and river discharge can be observed in the water level of estuaries. However, existing models have not considered these parameters for forecasting water level. This paper focuses on developing a water level forecast model for the Chikugo River estuary in Japan using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous inputs (NARX Model). NARX neural network was used to do the one-step-ahead prediction of water level considering the various parameters that can very well be influenced by climate change: previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Accordingly, three models were developed: (i) Model I considering previous water level; (ii) Model II additionally considering river discharge; and (iii) Model III additionally considering salinity. All the models showed appreciable performance in forecasting the water level. Model III had the best correlation with the water level with a cross-correlation value of 0.6030, while the river discharge had only a cross-correlation of 0.1113 indicating that the Chikugo River estuary is tide-dominated. The model was trained using different combinations of available data - previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Cross-correlation results showed a better correlation between water level and salinity than various other combinations trained. Therefore, tidal intrusion influences the water level in the estuary, thereby depicting that sea level rise can affect the water level, and its influence can be well predicted by the developed model. The water level significantly affects the flora and fauna and the predictability of future estuarine floods can help in taking necessary mitigation strategies. |
| 英文关键词 | Water level forecast; Climate change; Saline intrusion; NARX model; Time series analysis |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001221193800001 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287187 |
| 作者单位 | Thangal Kunju Musaliar College of Engineering; Tokyo Metropolitan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan[J],2024,251. |
| APA | (2024).Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,251. |
| MLA | "Analysing the performance of the NARX model for forecasting the water level in the Chikugo River estuary, Japan".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 251(2024). |
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