气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Updating catastrophe models to today 's climate - An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594
	Updating catastrophe models to today 's climate - An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall
	Lang, Andreas; Poschlod, Benjamin
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	44
卷号	44
英文摘要	As climate change unfolds, extreme weather events and natural hazards relevant for the insurance industry may change in frequency and intensity. In order to guarantee risk-adequate pricing, risk modelers have to ask themselves the question whether a certain 'hazard' parameter based on past observations and calibrated on past data is still valid or needs to be updated. Using the example of heavy rainfall between 3 h and 72 h as a proxy for flash flooding, we apply a unique highresolution single model initial-condition large ensemble. We outline a methodology by which risk modelers can assess whether, where and by how much updating the hazard component of their risk model is needed. Therefore, we compare two time periods: 1980-1999 (as an example for a typical baseline period) and 2015-2034 (representing a 20-year period centered around today). We argue that assessing changes over the full ensemble space is vital for (i) the identification of homogeneous regions where a certain signal emerges, and (ii) the quantification of risk changes in the tail of the extreme value distribution that may still be hidden in the mean response to climate change. In the example case of 3-hourly 50-year rainfall return levels, we find a significant increase between 1980 and 1999 and 2015-2034 over 44 % of European land area. We also identify specific risk regions such as northwestern Spain where changes in the very tail (100year rainfall return level) already emerge before more common extremes (1-year rainfall return level). Failing to detect and consider these tail changes or assuming equal changes for common and rare extremes may therefore lead to an under- or overestimation of the true level of risk today.
英文关键词	Extreme precipitation; Large ensemble; Climate change; Catastrophe modelling; Risk modelling; Insurance
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001226736500001
来源期刊	CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287157
作者单位	Munich RE Group; University of Hamburg
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lang, Andreas,Poschlod, Benjamin. Updating catastrophe models to today 's climate - An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall[J],2024,44.
APA	Lang, Andreas,&Poschlod, Benjamin.(2024).Updating catastrophe models to today 's climate - An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall.CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT,44.
MLA	Lang, Andreas,et al."Updating catastrophe models to today 's climate - An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall".CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 44(2024).