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| DOI | 10.3390/agriculture14040619 |
| Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2077-0472 |
| 起始页码 | 14 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | Meteorological conditions play a crucial role in driving outbreaks of rubber tree powdery mildew (RTPM). As the climate warms and techniques improve, rubber cultivation is expanding to higher latitudes, and the changing climate increases the RTPM risk. Rubber plantations on Hainan Island, situated on the northern margin of the tropics, have been selected as a case study to explore the meteorological mechanisms behind RTPM outbreaks quantitatively using a structural equation model, and project current and future RTPM outbreak patterns under different climate change scenarios by building predictive models based on data-driven algorithms. The following results were obtained: (1) days with an average temperature above 20 degrees C and days with light rain were identified as key meteorological drivers of RTPM using structural equation modeling (R2 = 0.63); (2) the Bayesian-optimized least-squares boosted trees ensemble model accurately predicted the interannual variability in the historical RTPM disease index (R2 = 0.79); (3) currently, due to the increased area of rubber plantations in the central region of Hainan, there is a higher risk of RTPM; and (4) under future climate scenarios, RTPM shows a decreasing trend (at a moderate level), with oscillating and sporadic outbreaks primarily observed in the central and northwest regions. We attribute this to the projected warming and drying trends that are unfavorable for RTPM. Our study is expected to enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change on RTPM, provide a prediction tool, and underscore the significance of the climate-aware production and management of rubber. |
| 英文关键词 | structural equation model; Bayesian-optimized least-squares boosted trees ensemble; climate change; Hainan Island |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
| WOS类目 | Agronomy |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001209920000001 |
| 来源期刊 | AGRICULTURE-BASEL
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286770 |
| 作者单位 | Hainan University; Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Affairs; Northeast Agricultural University - China; Heilongjiang University; Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences; Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Affairs |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern[J],2024,14(4). |
| APA | (2024).Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern.AGRICULTURE-BASEL,14(4). |
| MLA | "Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern".AGRICULTURE-BASEL 14.4(2024). |
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