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| DOI | 10.5194/gc-7-121-2024 |
| Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2569-7102 |
| EISSN | 2569-7110 |
| 起始页码 | 7 |
| 结束页码 | 2 |
| 卷号 | 7期号:2 |
| 英文摘要 | Participatory processes for identifying local climate change adaptation measures have to be performed worldwide. As these processes require information about context-specific climate change hazards, we show in this study how to quantify climate change hazards with their uncertainties in regions all around the globe and how to best communicate the potential hazards with their uncertainties in order to identify local climate change adaptation strategies. In a participatory process on water-related adaptation in a biosphere reserve in Germany, we used the freely available output of a multi-model ensemble provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) initiative, which provides global coverage, to quantify the wide range of potential future changes in (ground)water resources. Our approach for quantifying the range of potential climate change hazards can be applied worldwide for local to regional study areas and also for adaptations in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and biodiversity. We evaluated our approach to communicating uncertain local climate change hazards by means of questionnaires that the stakeholders in the participatory process and the audiences from the general public of two project result presentations answered. To support the stakeholders in participatory climate change adaptation processes, we propose the use of percentile boxes rather than boxplots for visualizing the range of potential future changes. This helps the stakeholders identify the future changes they wish to adapt to, depending on the problem (e.g., resource scarcity vs. resource excess) and their risk aversion. The general public is best informed by simple ensemble averages of potential future changes together with the model agreement on the sign of change. Using or adapting our quantification and communication approach, flexible climate change adaptation strategies can and should be developed worldwide in a participatory and transdisciplinary manner, involving stakeholders and scientists. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Education & Educational Research ; Geology |
| WOS类目 | Education & Educational Research ; Education, Scientific Disciplines ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001230184000001 |
| 来源期刊 | GEOSCIENCE COMMUNICATION
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/285751 |
| 作者单位 | Goethe University Frankfurt |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes[J],2024,7(2). |
| APA | (2024).Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes.GEOSCIENCE COMMUNICATION,7(2). |
| MLA | "Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes".GEOSCIENCE COMMUNICATION 7.2(2024). |
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