气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01698-1
	Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections
	Topal, Daniel; Ding, Qinghua
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	710
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:7
英文摘要	The Arctic has been suggested to see seasonally ice-free conditions within two-to-three decades under high-emissions scenarios. However, the time of emergence of the first ice-free month remains uncertain due to a wide range of estimates for Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. Here, we propose a recalibration of the sea ice and Greenland ice sheet response to climate change, based on the finding that the sensitivity of the Arctic cryosphere to atmospheric circulation in climate models substantially differs from the observed one. Assuming that Arctic climate sensitivity of models recalibrated by observations remains unchanged in coming decades, this approach yields a delay in the projected timing of the first September sea-ice-free Arctic and widespread Greenland melting of roughly a decade compared to the uncalibrated ensemble. This indicates the importance of accounting for the role of large-scale atmospheric forcing and circulation changes in Arctic climate change. When the Arctic will be seasonally sea ice free is highly uncertain. Here, the authors use the Arctic's response to atmospheric circulation to recalibrate models and show that sea-ice-free conditions are delayed by a decade compared to the original ensemble.
英文关键词	TERRA-NOVA BAY; SEA-ICE LOSS; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; SUMMER; SIMULATION; INSIGHTS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001004931500002
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282546
作者单位	Hungarian Research Network; Hungarian Academy of Sciences; HUN-REN Research Centre for Astronomy & Earth Sciences; Institute for Geological & Geochemical Research - HAS; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Universite Catholique Louvain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Topal, Daniel,Ding, Qinghua. Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections[J],2023,13(7).
APA	Topal, Daniel,&Ding, Qinghua.(2023).Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections.Nature Climate Change,13(7).
MLA	Topal, Daniel,et al."Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections".Nature Climate Change 13.7(2023).