气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01803-4
	Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide
	Wang, Tianpeng; Teng, Fei
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	The social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHGs), indicating marginal damage from GHG emissions, is a valuable and informative metric for policymaking. However, existing social cost estimates for methane (SC-CH4) and nitrous oxide (SC-N2O) have not kept pace with the latest scientific findings in damage functions, climate models and socioeconomic projections. We applied a multimodel assessment framework, incorporating recent advances that are neglected by past studies to re-estimate SC-CH4 and SC-N2O. Models of gross domestic product (GDP) level effects reveal US$2,900 per t-CH4 (in 2020 US dollars) for SC-CH4 and US$49,600 per t-N2O for SC-N2O for the emissions year 2020, indicating a 2-fold increase over previous estimates. Models incorporating GDP growth effects over time present a further 15-25-fold increase in estimates, dominating the uncertainty in social cost estimates. Although substantial uncertainty remains, our findings suggest greater benefits from CH4 and N2O mitigation policies compared with those of previous studies. Non-CO2 emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide, are non-negligible contributors to global warming. A multimodel analysis incorporating recent advances in damage functions shows that the social cost of these greenhouse gases would increase substantially, although uncertainty remains.
英文关键词	CLIMATE; TEMPERATURE; IMPACTS; CARBON; POLICY; LEVEL; CH4; CO2
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001066039100006
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282524
作者单位	Tsinghua University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tianpeng,Teng, Fei. Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide[J],2023.
APA	Wang, Tianpeng,&Teng, Fei.(2023).Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Wang, Tianpeng,et al."Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide".Nature Climate Change (2023).