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DOI10.1038/s41558-023-01603-w
Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability
Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.
发表日期2023
ISSN1758-678X
EISSN1758-6798
起始页码367
结束页码+
卷号13期号:4
英文摘要Adaptation to future sea-level rise is based on projections of continuously improving climate models. These projections are accompanied by inherent uncertainties, including those due to internal climate variability (ICV). The ICV arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible. Although neglecting this uncertainty can lead to an underestimation of future sea-level rise, its estimation and impacts have not been fully explored. Combining the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble experiments with power-law statistics, we show that, by 2100, if the ICV uncertainty reaches its upper limit, new sea-level-rise hotspots would appear in Southeast Asian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila), in western tropical Pacific Islands and the Western Indian Ocean. The better the ICV uncertainty is taken into account and correctly estimated, the more effective adaptation strategies can be elaborated with confidence and actions to follow. Sea-level rise (SLR) projections do not fully consider the influence of internal climate variability (ICV). Using large-ensemble projections, the authors show that including upper-limit ICV results in SLR hotspots in Southeast Asian megacities, and Western Indian and Pacific Oceans.
英文关键词UNCERTAINTY; TRENDS; TIME; QUANTIFICATION; PROJECTIONS
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000942724800003
来源期刊Nature Climate Change
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282437
作者单位Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE); National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA
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Becker, M.,Karpytchev, M.,Hu, A.. Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability[J],2023,13(4).
APA Becker, M.,Karpytchev, M.,&Hu, A..(2023).Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability.Nature Climate Change,13(4).
MLA Becker, M.,et al."Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability".Nature Climate Change 13.4(2023).
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