气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increase in MJO predictability under global warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01885-0
	Increase in MJO predictability under global warming
	Du, Danni; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Han, Weiqing; Chapman, William E.; Weiss, Jeffrey B.; Bradley, Elizabeth
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for future global weather prediction. Here we investigate changes in MJO predictability in reanalysis and climate model data and find that MJO predictability has increased over the past century. This increase can be attributed to anthropogenic warming and continues during the twenty-first century in projections. The increased predictability is accompanied by stronger MJO amplitude, more regular oscillation patterns and organized eastward propagation under global warming. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will increase the predictability of the MJO, with far-reaching consequences for global weather prediction. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key feature of tropical weather on a multi-weekly timescale. Here, the authors show that the MJO becomes more predictable with climate change, potentially allowing better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.
英文关键词	MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; PROPAGATION; VARIABILITY; EVOLUTION; PACIFIC; WEATHER; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001128528500003
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282251
作者单位	University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; The Santa Fe Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du, Danni,Subramanian, Aneesh C.,Han, Weiqing,et al. Increase in MJO predictability under global warming[J],2023.
APA	Du, Danni,Subramanian, Aneesh C.,Han, Weiqing,Chapman, William E.,Weiss, Jeffrey B.,&Bradley, Elizabeth.(2023).Increase in MJO predictability under global warming.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Du, Danni,et al."Increase in MJO predictability under global warming".Nature Climate Change (2023).