气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
	Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century
	Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Holland, Paul R.; De Rydt, Jan
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
英文关键词	AMUNDSEN SEA; VARIABILITY; MELTWATER; DRIVEN; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001087062600003
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282216
作者单位	UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC British Antarctic Survey; Northumbria University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Naughten, Kaitlin A.,Holland, Paul R.,De Rydt, Jan. Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century[J],2023.
APA	Naughten, Kaitlin A.,Holland, Paul R.,&De Rydt, Jan.(2023).Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Naughten, Kaitlin A.,et al."Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century".Nature Climate Change (2023).