气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01576-2
	Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways
	Muttitt, Greg; Price, James; Pye, Steve; Welsby, Dan
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	While important, coal power phase-out in models may be faster than is socio-politically feasible in highly coal-dependent countries. This research shows that reaching the temperature target with these constraints requires faster decline in emissions from the global North and in global oil and gas production. In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, global coal power generation declines rapidly due to its emissions intensity and substitutability. However, we find that in countries heavily dependent on coal-China, India and South Africa-this translates to a national decline twice as rapid as that achieved historically for any power technology in any country, relative to system size. This raises questions about socio-political feasibility. Here we constrain an integrated assessment model to the Powering Past Coal Alliance's differentiated phase-out timelines of 2030 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/European Union and 2050 elsewhere which, for large coal consumers, lies within the range of historical transitions. We find that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C then requires CO2 emissions reductions in the global North to be 50% more rapid than if this socio-political reality is ignored. This additional mitigation is focused on Europe and the United States, in transport and industry and implies more rapid decline in global oil and gas production.
英文关键词	ENERGY SYSTEM; POLITICAL FEASIBILITY; SCENARIOS; TRANSITIONS; TECHNOLOGIES; POLICY
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000926394000007
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282204
作者单位	University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Muttitt, Greg,Price, James,Pye, Steve,et al. Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways[J],2023.
APA	Muttitt, Greg,Price, James,Pye, Steve,&Welsby, Dan.(2023).Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Muttitt, Greg,et al."Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways".Nature Climate Change (2023).