气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41586-023-06092-7
	A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes
	Ombadi, Mohammed; Risser, Mark D.; Rhoades, Alan M.; Varadharajan, Charuleka
发表日期	2023
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
英文摘要	The intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in a warmer climate(1-5), posing a great challenge to water sustainability in natural and built environments. Of particular importance are rainfall (liquid precipitation) extremes owing to their instantaneous triggering of runoff and association with floods(6), landslides(7-9) and soil erosion(10,11). However, so far, the body of literature on intensification of precipitation extremes has not examined the extremes of precipitation phase separately, namely liquid versus solid precipitation. Here we show that the increase in rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions of the Northern Hemisphere is amplified, averaging 15 per cent per degree Celsius of warming-double the rate expected from increases in atmospheric water vapour. We utilize both a climate reanalysis dataset and future model projections to show that the amplified increase is due to a warming-induced shift from snow to rain. Furthermore, we demonstrate that intermodel uncertainty in projections of rainfall extremes can be appreciably explained by changes in snow-rain partitioning (coefficient of determination 0.47). Our findings pinpoint high-altitude regions as 'hotspots' that are vulnerable to future risk of extreme-rainfall-related hazards, thereby requiring robust climate adaptation plans to alleviate potential risk. Moreover, our results offer a pathway towards reducing model uncertainty in projections of rainfall extremes.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:001023900900001
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281165
作者单位	United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ombadi, Mohammed,Risser, Mark D.,Rhoades, Alan M.,et al. A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes[J],2023.
APA	Ombadi, Mohammed,Risser, Mark D.,Rhoades, Alan M.,&Varadharajan, Charuleka.(2023).A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes.NATURE.
MLA	Ombadi, Mohammed,et al."A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes".NATURE (2023).