气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.eng.2021.09.004
	China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision
	Zhang, Shu; Chen, Wenying
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2095-8099
EISSN	2096-0026
起始页码	64
结束页码	76
卷号	14
英文摘要	China's energy system requires a thorough transformation to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, leveraging the highly acclaimed the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model of China (China TIMES) that takes energy, the environment, and the economy into consideration, four carbon-neutral scenarios are pro-posed and compared for different emission peak times and carbon emissions in 2050. The results show that China's carbon emissions will peak at 10.3-10.4 Gt between 2025 and 2030. In 2050, renewables will account for 60% of total energy consumption (calorific value calculation) and 90% of total electricity generation, and the electrification rate will be close to 60%. The energy transition will bring sustained air quality improvement, with an 85% reduction in local air pollutants in 2050 compared with 2020 levels, and an early emission peak will yield more near-term benefits. Early peak attainment requires the exten-sive deployment of renewables over the next decade and an accelerated phasing out of coal after 2025. However, it will bring benefits such as obtaining better air quality sooner, reducing cumulative CO2 emis-sions, and buying more time for other sectors to transition. The pressure for more ambitious emission reductions in 2050 can be transmitted to the near future, affecting renewable energy development, energy service demand, and welfare losses.(c) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
英文关键词	Carbon neutrality; Energy transition; Climate change mitigation; China TIMES model; Synergistic effects
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000864881600012
来源期刊	ENGINEERING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281055
作者单位	Tsinghua University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Shu,Chen, Wenying. China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision[J],2022,14.
APA	Zhang, Shu,&Chen, Wenying.(2022).China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision.ENGINEERING,14.
MLA	Zhang, Shu,et al."China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision".ENGINEERING 14(2022).