气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2021JD036013
	Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment
	O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Payne, A. E.; Shields, C. A.; Rutz, J. J.; Leung, L-R; Ralph, F. M.; Collow, A.; Gorodetskaya, I; Guan, B.; Lora, J. M.; McClenny, E.; Nardi, K. M.; Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sarangi, C.; Shearer, E. J.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C.; Loring, B.; Huang, H.; Inda-Diaz, H. A.; Rhoades, A. M.; Zhou, Y.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
卷号	127 期号:6
英文摘要	The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.
英文关键词	atmospheric river; CMIP; ARTMIP; climate change; extreme precipitation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000776467500020
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280727
作者单位	Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Universities Space Research Association (USRA); National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore County; Universidade de Aveiro; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Yale University; University of California System; University of California Davis; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	O'Brien, T. A.,Wehner, M. F.,Payne, A. E.,et al. Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment[J],2022,127(6).
APA	O'Brien, T. A..,Wehner, M. F..,Payne, A. E..,Shields, C. A..,Rutz, J. J..,...&Zhou, Y..(2022).Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,127(6).
MLA	O'Brien, T. A.,et al."Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 127.6(2022).