气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia

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DOI	10.3390/f13050715
	MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia
	Khan, Arshad Mahmood; Li, Qingting; Saqib, Zafeer; Khan, Nasrullah; Habib, Tariq; Khalid, Nadia; Majeed, Muhammad; Tariq, Aqil
发表日期	2022
EISSN	1999-4907
卷号	13 期号:5
英文摘要	Chilgoza pine is an economically and ecologically important evergreen coniferous tree species of the dry and rocky temperate zone, and a native of south Asia. This species is rated as near threatened (NT) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This study hypothesized that climatic, soil and topographic variations strongly influence the distribution pattern and potential habitat suitability prediction of Chilgoza pine. Accordingly, this study was aimed to document the potential habitat suitability variations of Chilgoza pine under varying environmental scenarios by using 37 different environmental variables. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm in MaxEnt software was used to forecast the potential habitat suitability under current and future (i.e., 2050s and 2070s) climate change scenarios (i.e., Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 245 and 585). A total of 238 species occurrence records were collected from Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and employed to build the predictive distribution model. The results showed that normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of coldest quarter, isothermality, precipitation of driest month and volumetric fraction of the coarse soil fragments (>2 mm) were the leading predictors of species presence prediction. High accuracy values (>0.9) of predicted distribution models were recorded, and remarkable shrinkage of potentially suitable habitat of Chilgoza pine was followed by Afghanistan, India and China. The estimated extent of occurrence (EOO) of the species was about 84,938 km(2), and the area of occupancy (AOO) was about 888 km(2), with 54 major sub-populations. This study concluded that, as the total predicted suitable habitat under current climate scenario (138,782 km(2)) is reasonably higher than the existing EOO, this might represent a case of continuous range contraction. Hence, the outcomes of this research can be used to build the future conservation and management plans accordingly for this economically valuable species in the region.
英文关键词	GIS and remote sensing; species distribution modelling; species niche shift; resource management and conservation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000801446400001
来源期刊	FORESTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280688
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; International Islamic University, Pakistan; University of Malakand; University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir; Arid Agriculture University; University of Gujrat; Wuhan University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khan, Arshad Mahmood,Li, Qingting,Saqib, Zafeer,et al. MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia[J],2022,13(5).
APA	Khan, Arshad Mahmood.,Li, Qingting.,Saqib, Zafeer.,Khan, Nasrullah.,Habib, Tariq.,...&Tariq, Aqil.(2022).MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia.FORESTS,13(5).
MLA	Khan, Arshad Mahmood,et al."MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia".FORESTS 13.5(2022).