气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sharp decline in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) survival and reproductive success in southeastern Alaska during and after the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s42991-021-00187-2
	Sharp decline in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) survival and reproductive success in southeastern Alaska during and after the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave
	Gabriele, Christine M.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Neilson, Janet L.; Straley, Janice M.; Baker, C. Scott; Danielson, Seth L.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1616-5047
EISSN	1618-1476
起始页码	1113
结束页码	1131
卷号	102 期号:4
英文摘要	Understanding the ecosystem effects of ocean warming is increasingly important as marine heatwaves become more common and increase in severity. Here, we used Glacier Bay National Park long-term monitoring data (1985-2020) to investigate a sudden, sharp decline in humpback whale reproductive success and survival following the onset of the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH). Oceanographic data confirm a persistent warm-water anomaly in 2015-2016 in Glacier Bay, months later than the PMH was documented in the North Pacific. We assessed changes in demographic parameters pre- and post-PMH using whale and calf counts and multi-state closed population capture-recapture models. Non-calf abundance decreased by 56% between 2013 and 2018, followed by increases in 2019-2020. The predicted proportion of females in the population declined in 2015-2017 (0.40-0.44). For 5 years during and after the heatwave (2015-2019) calf production was far lower than historic levels (0.041 calves per adult female, in contrast to 0.27 pre-PMH). Calf survival dropped tenfold beginning with calves born in 2013 (0.396-0.032) and midsummer calf losses occurred at an unprecedented rate starting in 2014. Non-calf survival declined from 0.982 pre-PMH to 0.899 post-PMH, lower than any value reported for this species. We surmise that documented changes to the forage fish and zooplankton prey base during and after the PMH were the main driver of reduced humpback whale survival and reproductive success. Humpback whale abundance and productivity in southeastern Alaska will likely take years to recover from the PMH, assuming a return to favorable feeding conditions. Our work highlights this population's continued vulnerability as the climate warms into previously unobserved states.
英文关键词	Abundance; Climate change; Humpback whale; Individual identification; Marine heatwave; Multi-state capture-recapture models; Reproduction; Survival
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Zoology
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000767043400001
来源期刊	MAMMALIAN BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280601
作者单位	United States Department of the Interior; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Southeastern; Oregon State University; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gabriele, Christine M.,Amundson, Courtney L.,Neilson, Janet L.,et al. Sharp decline in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) survival and reproductive success in southeastern Alaska during and after the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave[J],2022,102(4).
APA	Gabriele, Christine M.,Amundson, Courtney L.,Neilson, Janet L.,Straley, Janice M.,Baker, C. Scott,&Danielson, Seth L..(2022).Sharp decline in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) survival and reproductive success in southeastern Alaska during and after the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave.MAMMALIAN BIOLOGY,102(4).
MLA	Gabriele, Christine M.,et al."Sharp decline in humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) survival and reproductive success in southeastern Alaska during and after the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave".MAMMALIAN BIOLOGY 102.4(2022).