气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009
	Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition
	Way, Rupert; Ives, Matthew C.; Mealy, Penny; Farmer, J. Doyne
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2542-4351
起始页码	2057
结束页码	2082
卷号	6 期号:9
英文摘要	Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is critical for address-ing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to im-plementation. Most energy-economy models have historically underes-timated deployment rates for renewable energy technologies and overestimated their costs. These issues have driven calls for alternative approaches and more reliable technology forecasting methods. Here, we use an approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that have been statistically validated by backtesting on more than 50 technologies. We generate probabilistic cost forecasts for solar energy, wind energy, batteries, and electrolyzers, conditional on deployment. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and explore how technology cost uncertainty propagates through to sys-tem costs in three different scenarios. Compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars-even without account-ing for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Chemistry, Physical ; Energy & Fuels ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000865323300011
来源期刊	JOULE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280581
作者单位	University of Oxford; University of Oxford; Monash University; University of Oxford; The Santa Fe Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Way, Rupert,Ives, Matthew C.,Mealy, Penny,et al. Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition[J],2022,6(9).
APA	Way, Rupert,Ives, Matthew C.,Mealy, Penny,&Farmer, J. Doyne.(2022).Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition.JOULE,6(9).
MLA	Way, Rupert,et al."Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition".JOULE 6.9(2022).