气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

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DOI	10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z
	Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C
	Meinshausen, Malte; Lewis, Jared; McGlade, Christophe; Guetschow, Johannes; Nicholls, Zebedee; Burdon, Rebecca; Cozzi, Laura; Hackmann, Bernd
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	304
结束页码	+
卷号	604 期号:7905
英文摘要	Over the last five years prior to the Glasgow Climate Pact(1), 154 Parties have submitted new or updated 2030 mitigation goals in their nationally determined contributions and 76 have put forward longer-term pledges. Quantifications of the pledges before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) suggested a less than 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius(2-5). Here we show that warming can be kept just below 2 degrees Celsius if all conditional and unconditional pledges are implemented in full and on time. Peak warming could be limited to 1.9-2.0 degrees Celsius (5%-95% range 1.4-2.8 degrees C) in the full implementation case-building on a probabilistic characterization of Earth system uncertainties in line with the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report(6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We retrospectively project twenty-first-century warming to show how the aggregate level of ambition changed from 2015 to 2021. Our results rely on the extrapolation of time-limited targets beyond 2030 or 2050, characteristics of the IPCC 1.5 degrees C Special Report (SR1.5) scenario database(7) and the full implementation of pledges. More pessimistic assumptions on these factors would lead to higher temperature projections. A second, independent emissions modelling framework projected peak warming of 1.8 degrees Celsius, supporting the finding that realized pledges could limit warming to just below 2 degrees Celsius. Limiting warming not only to 'just below' but to 'well below' 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees Celsius urgently requires policies and actions to bring about steep emission reductions this decade, aligned with mid-century global net-zero CO2 emissions.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000782478700019
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280572
作者单位	University of Melbourne; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Melbourne
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meinshausen, Malte,Lewis, Jared,McGlade, Christophe,et al. Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C[J],2022,604(7905).
APA	Meinshausen, Malte.,Lewis, Jared.,McGlade, Christophe.,Guetschow, Johannes.,Nicholls, Zebedee.,...&Hackmann, Bernd.(2022).Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C.NATURE,604(7905).
MLA	Meinshausen, Malte,et al."Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C".NATURE 604.7905(2022).