气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-04369-3
	Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns
	Timilsena, Bipana Paudel; Niassy, Saliou; Kimathi, Emily; Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.; Seidl-Adams, Irmgard; Wamalwa, Mark; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Ekesi, Sunday; Hughes, David P.; Rajotte, Edwin G.; Subramanian, Sevgan
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2045-2322
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW 'hotspots' from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000783767400050
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280568
作者单位	Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Timilsena, Bipana Paudel,Niassy, Saliou,Kimathi, Emily,et al. Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns[J],2022,12(1).
APA	Timilsena, Bipana Paudel.,Niassy, Saliou.,Kimathi, Emily.,Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M..,Seidl-Adams, Irmgard.,...&Subramanian, Sevgan.(2022).Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,12(1).
MLA	Timilsena, Bipana Paudel,et al."Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 12.1(2022).