气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2022GL100011
	Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change
	Wills, Robert C. J.; Dong, Yue; Proistosecu, Cristian; Armour, Kyle C.; Battisti, David S.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
卷号	49 期号:17
英文摘要	Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state-of-the-art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure trends over 1979-2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large-scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to tropical-mean warming, which shows little multi-decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000855316100001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280488
作者单位	University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Columbia University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wills, Robert C. J.,Dong, Yue,Proistosecu, Cristian,et al. Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change[J],2022,49(17).
APA	Wills, Robert C. J.,Dong, Yue,Proistosecu, Cristian,Armour, Kyle C.,&Battisti, David S..(2022).Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,49(17).
MLA	Wills, Robert C. J.,et al."Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 49.17(2022).