气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0
	Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing
	Watson-Parris, Duncan; Smith, Christopher J.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1111
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:12 页码:6
英文摘要	The degree to which aerosols influence surface temperatures is not well understood. Here, the authors argue that reducing the uncertainties in the climate response to aerosol forcing is one of the key challenges to reduce overall uncertainties of warming projections. Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000883216500003
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274157
作者单位	University of Oxford; University of Leeds; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Watson-Parris, Duncan,Smith, Christopher J.. Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing[J],2022,12(12):6.
APA	Watson-Parris, Duncan,&Smith, Christopher J..(2022).Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(12),6.
MLA	Watson-Parris, Duncan,et al."Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.12(2022):6.