气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01492-5
	Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields
	Zhu, Peng; Burney, Jennifer; Chang, Jinfeng; Jin, Zhenong; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Xin, Qinchuan; Xu, Jialu; Yu, Le; Makowski, David; Ciais, Philippe
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1016
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:11 页码:12
英文摘要	Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction (-4.2 +/- 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s. Climate change will impact agriculture, and this study shows cropping frequency and caloric yield are negatively impacted on the global scale by warming. While cold regions will increase cropping frequency, warm regions will see greater decreases, resulting in an overall decline in production.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000865703700003
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274149
作者单位	UDICE-French Research Universities; Universite Paris Saclay; CEA; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Hong Kong; Sun Yat Sen University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Zhejiang University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Colorado State University; Colorado State University; Beijing Normal University; Tsinghua University; AgroParisTech; INRAE; UDICE-French Research Universities; Universite Paris Saclay
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Peng,Burney, Jennifer,Chang, Jinfeng,et al. Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields[J],2022,12(11):12.
APA	Zhu, Peng.,Burney, Jennifer.,Chang, Jinfeng.,Jin, Zhenong.,Mueller, Nathaniel D..,...&Ciais, Philippe.(2022).Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(11),12.
MLA	Zhu, Peng,et al."Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.11(2022):12.