气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y
	Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming
	Dvorak, M. T.; Armour, K. C.; Frierson, D. M. W.; Proistosescu, C.; Baker, M. B.; Smith, C. J.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	547
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:6 页码:15
英文摘要	Halting emissions does not immediately stop warming as atmospheric concentrations continue to warm the planet. This study shows society may already be committed to exceeding 1.5 degrees C peak warming with 42% probability; delaying cuts increases this to 66% in 2029 for all scenarios. Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2-4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 degrees C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO(2) relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 degrees C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO(2) relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 degrees C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000806663500003
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274134
作者单位	University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Leeds; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dvorak, M. T.,Armour, K. C.,Frierson, D. M. W.,et al. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming[J],2022,12(6):15.
APA	Dvorak, M. T.,Armour, K. C.,Frierson, D. M. W.,Proistosescu, C.,Baker, M. B.,&Smith, C. J..(2022).Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(6),15.
MLA	Dvorak, M. T.,et al."Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.6(2022):15.