气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 degrees C

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2
	Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 degrees C
	Jenkins, Stuart; Smith, Chris; Allen, Myles; Grainger, Roy
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	127
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:2 页码:5
英文摘要	On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption injected 146 MtH(2)O and 0.42 MtSO(2) into the stratosphere. This large water vapour perturbation means that HTHH will probably increase the net radiative forcing, unusual for a large volcanic eruption, increasing the chance of the global surface temperature anomaly temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees C over the coming decade. Here we estimate the radiative response to the HTHH eruption and derive the increased risk that the global mean surface temperature anomaly shortly exceeds 1.5 degrees C following the eruption. We show that HTHH has a tangible impact of the chance of imminent 1.5 degrees C exceedance (increasing the chance of at least one of the next 5 years exceeding 1.5 degrees C by 7%), but the level of climate policy ambition, particularly the mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants, dominates the 1.5 degrees C exceedance outlook over decadal timescales.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000913474800001
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274103
作者单位	University of Oxford; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Leeds; University of Oxford
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jenkins, Stuart,Smith, Chris,Allen, Myles,et al. Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 degrees C[J],2023,13(2):5.
APA	Jenkins, Stuart,Smith, Chris,Allen, Myles,&Grainger, Roy.(2023).Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 degrees C.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,13(2),5.
MLA	Jenkins, Stuart,et al."Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 degrees C".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 13.2(2023):5.