气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5
	Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events
	Bevacqua, Emanuele; Zappa, Giuseppe; Lehner, Flavio; Zscheischler, Jakob
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	350
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:4 页码:22
英文摘要	Co-occurring hot and dry extremes are predicted to increase with global warming. Changes in precipitation will modulate the extent of these changes, highlighting the importance of understanding regional precipitation trends to prepare society and minimize impacts. Compound hot-dry events-co-occurring hot and dry extremes-frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot-dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2 degrees C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot-dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000770059400004
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274075
作者单位	Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR); Cornell University; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University of Bern; University of Bern
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bevacqua, Emanuele,Zappa, Giuseppe,Lehner, Flavio,et al. Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events[J],2022,12(4):22.
APA	Bevacqua, Emanuele,Zappa, Giuseppe,Lehner, Flavio,&Zscheischler, Jakob.(2022).Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(4),22.
MLA	Bevacqua, Emanuele,et al."Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot-dry events".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.4(2022):22.