气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9
	Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
	Wunderling, Nico; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Rockstroem, Johan; Loriani, Sina; McKay, David I. Armstrong; Ritchie, Paul D. L.; Sakschewski, Boris; Donges, Jonathan F.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	75
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:1 页码:19
英文摘要	Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5-< 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today's levels of global warming.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000903135300002
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274060
作者单位	Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Stockholm University; Princeton University; University of Potsdam; University of Exeter
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wunderling, Nico,Winkelmann, Ricarda,Rockstroem, Johan,et al. Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model[J],2023,13(1):19.
APA	Wunderling, Nico.,Winkelmann, Ricarda.,Rockstroem, Johan.,Loriani, Sina.,McKay, David I. Armstrong.,...&Donges, Jonathan F..(2023).Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,13(1),19.
MLA	Wunderling, Nico,et al."Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 13.1(2023):19.