气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01445-y
	Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate
	Liu, Yi; Cai, Wenju; Lin, Xiaopei; Li, Ziguang
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	828
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:9 页码:18
英文摘要	Interannual variability of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affects hydrological cycles, extreme weather events, ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods in Atlantic-rim countries. It can experience an interannual extreme swing, moving hundreds of kilometres northwards during boreal spring, causing severe droughts in central-eastern Amazon and floods in northern South America. How its interannual variability will respond to global warming remains unknown. Here using state-of-the-art climate models under a high-emission scenario, we project a more-than-doubling increase of extreme northward swings. This increase from one event per 20.4 years in the twentieth century to one per 9.3 years in the twenty-first century is underpinned by a mean state change of sea surface temperature, with faster warming north of the Equator. The warming differential facilitates the increased frequency of extreme swings, as the ITCZ follows the maximum sea surface temperature. Our finding suggests a substantial increase in ITCZ swing-induced severe droughts/floods in the Atlantic-rim countries. The Atlantic intertropical convergence zone can experience extreme northward shifts, with resultant precipitation changes. Model projections show the frequency of these extreme shifts will increase under climate change, driven by faster sea surface warming north of the Equator.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000841701500003
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274051
作者单位	Ocean University of China; Ocean University of China; Laoshan Laboratory; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yi,Cai, Wenju,Lin, Xiaopei,et al. Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate[J],2022,12(9):18.
APA	Liu, Yi,Cai, Wenju,Lin, Xiaopei,&Li, Ziguang.(2022).Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(9),18.
MLA	Liu, Yi,et al."Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.9(2022):18.