气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.007
	Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6
	Xing, Zan -Pin; Zhao, Lin; Fan, Lei; Hu, Guo-Jie; Zou, De-Fu; Wang, Chong; Liu, Shu-Ci; Du, Er-Ji; Xiao, Yao; LI, Ren; Liu, Guang-Yue; Qiao, Yong-Ping; Shi, Jian-Zong
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	85
结束页码	96
卷号	14 期号:1 页码:12
英文摘要	Numerous studies were published in the last two decades to evaluate and project the permafrost changes in its thermal state, mainly based on the soil temperature datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and discuss the impacts of permafrost changes on regional hydrological, ecological and climatic systems and even carbon cycles. However, limited monitored soil temperature data are available to validate the CMIP outputs, resulting in the over-projection of future permafrost changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5. Moreover, future permafrost changes in CMIP6, particularly over the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau (QTP), where permafrost covers more than 40% of its territory, are still un-known. To address this gap, we evaluated and calibrated the monthly ground surface temperature (GST; 5 cm below the ground surface), which was often used as the upper boundary to simulate and project permafrost changes derived from 19 CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) against in situ measurements over the QTP. We generated the monthly GST series from 1900 to 2014 for five sites based on the linear calibration models and validated them through the three other sites using the same calibration methods. Results showed that all of the ESMs could capture the dynamics of in situ GST with high correlations (r > 0.90). However, large errors were detected with a broad range of centred root-mean-square errors (1.14-4.98 degrees C). The Top 5 model ensembles (MME5) performed better than most individual ESMs and averaged multi-model ensembles (MME19). The calibrated GST performed better than the GST obtained from MME5. Both annual and seasonal GSTs exhibited warming trends with an average annual rate of 0.04 degrees C per decade in the annual GST. The average seasonal warming rate was highest in winter and spring and lowest in summer. This reconstructed GST data series could be used to simulate the long-term permafrost temperature over the QTP.
英文关键词	Ground surface temperature; CMIP6; Cold bias; Permafrost; Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000955425200001
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273959
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Southwest University - China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xing, Zan -Pin,Zhao, Lin,Fan, Lei,et al. Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6[J],2023,14(1):12.
APA	Xing, Zan -Pin.,Zhao, Lin.,Fan, Lei.,Hu, Guo-Jie.,Zou, De-Fu.,...&Shi, Jian-Zong.(2023).Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,14(1),12.
MLA	Xing, Zan -Pin,et al."Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 14.1(2023):12.