气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio

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DOI	10.5194/acp-22-3911-2022
	Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio
	Ramsden, Alice E.; Ganesan, Anita L.; Western, Luke M.; Rigby, Matthew; Manning, Alistair J.; Foulds, Amy; France, James L.; Barker, Patrick; Levy, Peter; Say, Daniel; Wisher, Adam; Arnold, Tim; Rennick, Chris; Stanley, Kieran M.; Young, Dickon; O'Doherty, Simon
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	3911
结束页码	3929
卷号	22 期号:6 页码:19
英文摘要	We present a method for estimating fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of methane and ethane, accounting for uncertainty in their emission ratio. The ethane : methane emission ratio is incorporated as a spatially and temporally variable parameter in a Bayesian model, with its own prior distribution and uncertainty. We find that using an emission ratio distribution mitigates bias from using a fixed, potentially incorrect emission ratio and that uncertainty in this ratio is propagated into posterior estimates of emissions. A synthetic data test is used to show the impact of assuming an incorrect ethane : methane emission ratio and demonstrate how our variable parameter model can better quantify overall uncertainty. We also use this method to estimate UK methane emissions from high-frequency observations of methane and ethane from the UK Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change (DECC) network. Using the joint methane-ethane inverse model, we estimate annual mean UK methane emissions of approximately 0.27 (95 % uncertainty interval 0.26-0.29) Tg yr(-1) from fossil fuel sources and 2.06 (1.99-2.15) Tg yr(-1) from non-fossil fuel sources, during the period 2015-2019. Uncertainties in UK fossil fuel emissions estimates are reduced on average by 15 % and up to 35 % when incorporating ethane into the inverse model, in comparison to results from the methane-only inversion.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000774969500001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273717
作者单位	University of Bristol; University of Bristol; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Manchester; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH); National Physical Laboratory - UK; University of Edinburgh; Goethe University Frankfurt; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC British Antarctic Survey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramsden, Alice E.,Ganesan, Anita L.,Western, Luke M.,et al. Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio[J],2022,22(6):19.
APA	Ramsden, Alice E..,Ganesan, Anita L..,Western, Luke M..,Rigby, Matthew.,Manning, Alistair J..,...&O'Doherty, Simon.(2022).Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(6),19.
MLA	Ramsden, Alice E.,et al."Quantifying fossil fuel methane emissions using observations of atmospheric ethane and an uncertain emission ratio".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.6(2022):19.