气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming

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DOI	10.5194/acp-22-16111-2022
	Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming
	Sena, Elisa T.; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Kostinski, Alexander B.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	16111
结束页码	16122
卷号	22 期号:24 页码:12
英文摘要	Record-breaking statistics are combined here with a geographic mode of exploration to introduce a record-breaking map. We examine time series of sea surface temperature (SST) values and show that high SST records have been broken far more frequently than the expected rate for a trend-free random variable (TFRV) over the vast majority of oceans (83 % of the grid cells). This, together with the asymmetry between high and low records and their deviation from a TFRV, indicates SST warming over most oceans, obtained using a distribution-independent, robust, and simple-to-use method. The spatial patterns of this warming are coherent and reveal islands of cooling, such as the cold blob in the North Atlantic and a surprising elliptical area in the Southern Ocean, near the Ross Sea gyre, not previously reported. The method was also applied to evaluate a global climate model (GCM), which reproduced the observed records during the study period. The distribution of records from the GCM pre-industrial (PI) control run samples was similar to the one from a TFRV, suggesting that the contribution of a suitably constrained internal variability to the observed record-breaking trends is negligible. Future forecasts show striking SST trends, with even more frequent high records and less frequent low records.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000902164400001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273541
作者单位	Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo (UNIFESP); Weizmann Institute of Science; Michigan Technological University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sena, Elisa T.,Koren, Ilan,Altaratz, Orit,et al. Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming[J],2022,22(24):12.
APA	Sena, Elisa T.,Koren, Ilan,Altaratz, Orit,&Kostinski, Alexander B..(2022).Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(24),12.
MLA	Sena, Elisa T.,et al."Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.24(2022):12.