气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-23-287-2023
	Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations
	Wolf, Kevin; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	287
结束页码	309
卷号	23 期号:1 页码:23
英文摘要	Condensations trails (or contrails) that form behind aircraft have been of climatic interest for many years; yet, their radiative forcing is still uncertain. A number of studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar to, or even larger than, that of CO2 emitted by aviation. Hence, contrail mitigation may represent a significant opportunity to reduce the overall climate effect of aviation. Here we analyze an 8-year data set of radiosonde observations from Trappes, France, in terms of the potential for contrail and induced cirrus formation. We focus on the contrail vertical and temporal distribution and test mitigation opportunities by changing flight altitudes and fuel type. Potential contrail formation is identified with the Schmidt-Appleman criterion (SAc). The uncertainty of the SAc, due to variations in aircraft type and age, is estimated by a sensitivity study and is found to be larger than the radiosonde measurement uncertainties. Linkages between potential contrail formation layers and the thermal tropopause, as well as with the altitude of the jet stream maximum, are determined. While non-persistent contrails form at the tropopause level and around 1.5 km above the jet stream, persistent contrails are located approximately 1.5 km below the thermal tropopause and at the altitude of the jet stream. The correlation between contrail formation layers and the thermal tropopause and jet stream maximum allows to use these quantities as proxies to identify potential contrail formation in numerical weather prediction models. The contrail mitigation potential is tested by varying today's flight altitude distribution. It is found that flying 0.8 km higher during winter and lowering flight altitude in summer reduces the probability for contrail formation. Furthermore, the effect of prospective jet engine developments and their influence on contrail formation are tested. An increase in propulsion efficiency leads to a general increase in the potential occurrence of non-persistent and persistent contrails. Finally, the impact of alternative fuels (ethanol, methane, and hydrogen) is estimated and found to generally increase the likelihood of non-persistent contrails and, to a more limited extent, persistent contrails.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000911184000001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273354
作者单位	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Earth Sciences & Astronomy (INSU); UDICE-French Research Universities; Sorbonne Universite; Universite Paris Saclay; University of Reading
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wolf, Kevin,Bellouin, Nicolas,Boucher, Olivier. Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations[J],2023,23(1):23.
APA	Wolf, Kevin,Bellouin, Nicolas,&Boucher, Olivier.(2023).Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,23(1),23.
MLA	Wolf, Kevin,et al."Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 23.1(2023):23.