气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the value meteorological ensembles add to dispersion modelling using hypothetical releases

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DOI	10.5194/acp-22-577-2022
	Assessing the value meteorological ensembles add to dispersion modelling using hypothetical releases
	Leadbetter, Susan J.; Jones, Andrew R.; Hort, Matthew C.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	577
结束页码	596
卷号	22 期号:1 页码:20
英文摘要	Atmospheric dispersion model output is frequently used to provide advice to decision makers, for example, about the likely location of volcanic ash erupted from a volcano or the location of deposits of radioactive material released during a nuclear accident. Increasingly, scientists and decision makers are requesting information on the uncertainty of these dispersion model predictions. One source of uncertainty is in the meteorology used to drive the dispersion model, and in this study ensemble meteorology from the Met Office ensemble prediction system is used to provide meteorological uncertainty to dispersion model predictions. Two hypothetical scenarios, one volcanological and one radiological, are repeated every 12 h over a period of 4 months. The scenarios are simulated using ensemble meteorology and deterministic forecast meteorology and compared to output from simulations using analysis meteorology using the Brier skill score. Adopting the practice commonly used in evaluating numerical weather prediction (NWP) models where observations are sparse or non-existent, we consider output from simulations using analysis NWP data to be truth. The results show that on average the ensemble simulations perform better than the deterministic simulations, although not all individual ensemble simulations outperform their deterministic counterpart. The results also show that greater skill scores are achieved by the ensemble simulation for later time steps rather than earlier time steps. In addition there is a greater increase in skill score over time for deposition than for air concentration. For the volcanic ash scenarios it is shown that the performance of the ensemble at one flight level can be different to that at a different flight level; e.g. a negative skill score might be obtained for FL350-550 and a positive skill score for FL200-350. This study does not take into account any source term uncertainty, but it does take the first steps towards demonstrating the value of ensemble dispersion model predictions.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000746445900001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273056
作者单位	Met Office - UK
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leadbetter, Susan J.,Jones, Andrew R.,Hort, Matthew C.. Assessing the value meteorological ensembles add to dispersion modelling using hypothetical releases[J],2022,22(1):20.
APA	Leadbetter, Susan J.,Jones, Andrew R.,&Hort, Matthew C..(2022).Assessing the value meteorological ensembles add to dispersion modelling using hypothetical releases.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(1),20.
MLA	Leadbetter, Susan J.,et al."Assessing the value meteorological ensembles add to dispersion modelling using hypothetical releases".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.1(2022):20.