气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate tipping points and expert judgment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/wcc.805
	Climate tipping points and expert judgment
	Lam, Vincent; Majszak, Mason M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7799
卷号	13 期号:6 页码:15
英文摘要	Expert judgment can be seen throughout climate science and even more prominently when discussing climate tipping points. To provide an accurate characterization of expert judgment we begin by evaluating the existing literature on expertise as it relates to climate science as a whole, before then focusing the literature review on the role of expert judgment in the unique context of climate tipping points. From this we turn our attention to the structured expert elicitation protocols specifically developed for producing expert judgments about tipping points. We highlight that expert elicitation is not only used for the quantification of uncertainty in this context, but also for the very identification and characterization of tipping points and their interactions, making expert judgment in itself a genuine scientific output. The central role of expert judgment in this domain raises several epistemic issues that require careful attention. Among other topics, we discuss the relationship between expert judgment and modeling, as well as the nonepistemic values that are involved in the production of expert judgments, highlighting how the elicitation protocols can be used to manage these values. In the perspective of climate change, clarifying the epistemic foundations of expert judgment in this context can help to navigate the epistemic situation between self-defeating alarmism and blind dismissal, thus contributing to a better understanding of the challenges related to climate (and Earth system) tipping points. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Ideas and Knowledge The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making
英文关键词	climate and earth system modeling; climate and earth system tipping points; expert judgment and elicitation; nonepistemic values; uncertainty
学科领域	Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000869554400001
来源期刊	WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272945
作者单位	University of Bern; University of Bern; University of Queensland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lam, Vincent,Majszak, Mason M.. Climate tipping points and expert judgment[J],2022,13(6):15.
APA	Lam, Vincent,&Majszak, Mason M..(2022).Climate tipping points and expert judgment.WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE,13(6),15.
MLA	Lam, Vincent,et al."Climate tipping points and expert judgment".WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE 13.6(2022):15.