气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anticipating drought-related food security changes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-022-00962-0
	Anticipating drought-related food security changes
	Krishnamurthy, P. Krishna R.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Choularton, Richard J.; Kareiva, Peter M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	956
结束页码	964
卷号	5 期号:11 页码:9
英文摘要	Food insecurity early warning can provide time to mitigate unfolding crises; however, drought remains a large source of uncertainty. The challenge is to filter unclear or conflicting signals from various climatic and socio-economic variables and link them to food security outcomes. Integrating lag-1 autocorrelation diagnostics into remotely sensed observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and food prices, we found dramatic improvement in anticipating the timing and intensity of food crises, except in conflict settings. We analysed drought-induced food crises globally in the SMAP record (since 2015; approximately five per year). The change in soil moisture autocorrelation, which we term the Soil Moisture Auto-Regressive Threshold (SMART), signalled an accurate food security transition for all cases studied here (P < 0.05; n = 212), including lead time of up to three to six months for every case. The SMART trigger anticipates the timing of the transition and the magnitude of the food security change among small to large transitions, both into and out of crises (R-2 = 0.80-0.83). While we do not evaluate out-of-sample forecast accuracy using our model, our findings suggest a significant advancement in the capabilities of food security early-warning diagnostics and could save lives and resources. Early warnings of impending food crises can provide valuable time to mitigate their worst impacts, but droughts have proven difficult to predict. Soil moisture autocorrelation measured by remote sensing satellites advances our ability to anticipate food security crises resulting from drought.
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000863190700003
来源期刊	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272874
作者单位	University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Chapman University System; Chapman University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krishnamurthy, P. Krishna R.,Fisher, Joshua B.,Choularton, Richard J.,et al. Anticipating drought-related food security changes[J],2022,5(11):9.
APA	Krishnamurthy, P. Krishna R.,Fisher, Joshua B.,Choularton, Richard J.,&Kareiva, Peter M..(2022).Anticipating drought-related food security changes.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,5(11),9.
MLA	Krishnamurthy, P. Krishna R.,et al."Anticipating drought-related food security changes".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 5.11(2022):9.