气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future

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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113190
	How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future
	Aryanpur, Vahid; Fattahi, Mahshid; Mamipour, Siab; Ghahremani, Mahsa; Gallachoir, Brian O.; Bazilian, Morgan D.; Glynn, James
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0301-4215
EISSN	1873-6777
卷号	169 页码:12
英文摘要	Substantial energy subsidies are recognised as the leading cause of Iran's inefficient electricity generation and consumption. This paper investigates the impacts of subsidy removal on future electricity demand and the required generation mix. A hybrid modelling framework is developed to analyse supply and demand sides under harmonised assumptions. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model combined with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecast electricity demand under subsidy removal scenarios at different paces. A partial equilibrium energy systems model (MESSAGE) offers a cost-optimal configuration of power generation technologies to meet the forecasted demand during the period 2017-2050. The findings demonstrate that energy subsidy reforms can reduce total electricity demand by 16% and could ensure a 31% cut in cumulative CO2 emissions. The scenario analysis also shows that under an early and steady reform scenario and with gradual removal, the development of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency plans become cost-competitive. In contrast, the late and rapid subsidy removal path should tackle the lock-in effect's risk. This reveals that the early action in energy subsidy reform should be considered a priority over the removal speed. Finally, this paper discusses the potential policy implications beyond Iran.
英文关键词	Energy subsidy reform; Integrated energy -economy modelling; Power sector; Subsidy removal scenarios; Optimisation; Low -carbon future
学科领域	Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000865022700007
来源期刊	ENERGY POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272223
作者单位	University College Cork; University College Cork; Kharazmi University; Columbia University; Colorado School of Mines
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aryanpur, Vahid,Fattahi, Mahshid,Mamipour, Siab,et al. How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future[J],2022,169:12.
APA	Aryanpur, Vahid.,Fattahi, Mahshid.,Mamipour, Siab.,Ghahremani, Mahsa.,Gallachoir, Brian O..,...&Glynn, James.(2022).How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future.ENERGY POLICY,169,12.
MLA	Aryanpur, Vahid,et al."How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future".ENERGY POLICY 169(2022):12.